You are right to hesitate on price directions for houses - low listings are contributing to price stability, but so are rents increasing by 25% ($120 pw on $500 pw) and many buyers paying cash (not first home buyers). We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Stock up 18%. Games fiasco will leave business shaking its head at Victorian farce. I'm often asked how much time/effort it takes to write an AFR column. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Strong academic credentials, but limited real world experience. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. . It’s like the economy has cancer and our doctors wants to stop treatment caus we’re feeling nauseous from the chemo 🤦♂️ @cjoye True, but houses / home units are hard to beat. “@TvcMike @cjoye tech/growth/risk assets, makes any real sense. Especially as pandemic funding measures end”House prices to get whacked by rates again: If the cash rate does indeed hit 4. @cjoye I still haven’t seen you clearly outline why rates will stay high over the medium to long term, when nothing has fundamentally permanently changed since 2019. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. what you choose? We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. May 2. 4% pa return. ConversationSee new Tweets. Bang on our forecast for 15-25% cumulative loss. Team Talk: Cowboys 2023 overview, best 17, squad update. 1%, bringing total decline to 6. While all costs (interest, rates, land tax, utility, body corp, maintenance) are against investors, 2m deposit gives u 100k effortless money. ”Log in. Log in. Sydney (+1. 25pc and possibly beyond, also raising risk RBA hikes past 3. . 3:30 AM · May 20, 2022 · Twitter Web App. Found. ConversationSee new Tweets. Australia faces "largest and longest house price correction in history" - MacroBusiness. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Youre allowed to tweet at new cycle-low milestones only. au “GS have published research on what Australia's inflation rate looks like using the new monthly data, crucially excluding items the ABS does not collect information on (and imputes to have no change). Australia faces "largest and longest house price correction in history" According to CoreLogic records dating back to 1980, Australian dwelling values have never fallen by more than 11% across the combined. But with a referendum and election coming in the next 12 months, in addition to a $19b surplus. . Investors want little to do with a sector heading for a big dose of reality. Retweets. christopher joye on Twitter: "Credit Suisse trying to squeeze. . Embarrassingly wrong. @cjoye Cracking interview with the great Tom Piotrowski on equities, bonds, house prices, banks and pretty much everything under the sun - notably recorded before the RBA kicked off its second hiking cycle…CoreLogic is the leading property data, information, analytics and services provider in Australia and New Zealand with growing partnerships throughout Asia. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Log inchristopher joye @cjoye 7h One of the more interesting questions going around is whether bonds issued for environment, social and/or governance (ESG) purposes attract a lower. Replying to . ly/3tKymvn 8:25 PM · Nov 21, 2022 · Twitter Web App @cjoye Aussie house price update to 25 July: Sydney prices down 1. 4%mom) and Melbourne (+0. and @Johnkehoe23. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. However, the. The news is not good: "We construct a new ‘weighted-median’ measure of…” Honestly, we hit the limit current incomes can support. 6 billion Snowy Hydro… We've been forecasting a US recession since Jan 2022, which the market has recently converged on. “Bitcoin down at US$20k again, but Aussie house prices stabilising once more while equities tank. Sign upLog in. Log in. See new Tweets Nothing like purposely using a log graph to make it look like it has barely crashed ever Massive downside miss for Aussie monthly inflation - RBA should pause and if they hike in December they will struggle to do much more. In this conversation. The latest tweets from @cjoye Dante. Replying to . This will in turn demand radical attitudinal change. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. And homes are still priced above Covid levels. “@KurtMickan @cjoye If the current conditions remain I would expect prices to fall. . @cjoye/Twitter) Shark clamps onto diver's leg as blood and screams pour out in attack video. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Log inWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Sign upLog in. 5%, the…. #ausecon @felicity_emmett @AdelaideTimbrel. christopher joye @cjoye. Both of which disproportionately affect the bottom 50% of households. Higher long-term risk-free cash rates are going to create a protracted pain trade for risky assets. Sign up“@haluksenlik @cjoye There is obviously significantly more risk and fraud in crypto than in the stock market, but Matt Damon promoted a centralized brokerage that curates assets and thus doesn't expose you to the scams where possible. Honestly, we hit the limit current incomes can support. 4%. ” christopher joye on Twitter: "Good morning!" / Twitter. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 50% in 2019 to 0. 7% on 376 auctions (@corelogicau) vs 49. “Bitcoin down at US$20k again, but Aussie house prices stabilising once more while equities tank. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 5%; 5 capital cities have fallen 3. Why are they silent on the stock NFLX performance???”“Westpac/MI Australian Consumer Confidence now lower than GFC levels--and aside from March 2020, the lowest since 1990. “@cjoye Chris, you do realise that we have 30,000 arrivals per month, when in April we only started 2500 new dwellings? There are people coming from overseas using foreign currency to rent or buy property with currency that has appreciated against the Aud by 15% in the past six months. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Sydney house prices plummet like it's 1983. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 1:24 AM · Jul 9, 2023 · 10. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. First miss on EPS since IPO, I think. See charts below for the latest daily index data for Syd/Melb @cjoye banks are throwing everything to keep the arrears off the books, giving repayment holidays, turning loans into 30-40 year mortgages interest free, & CBA anyone ahead on their loan schedule are getting repayment discounts! @cjoye I think you’re missing a factor from your interest rate property price calculator, how many investors were using a rising market to facilitate/service their loans, buy new properties& hide some properties under company trusts to hide their debt positions. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 7% in July; Melbourne prices down 1. “Pretty clear RBA has been spooked by house price collapse, which is only going to get worse”christopher joye on Twitter. This chart from Bloomberg provides a good summary of consensus estimates. ↑ Joye, Christopher. Considering the RBA's housing price model predicts some pretty major price falls if rates rise 1%, it would be interesting to see how falling real wages may potentially exacerbate that. “GS: Australian capital-city dwelling prices rose +0. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Anecdote from my AFR column today: “For Australia’s inflation rate to subside, we will also need more productivity to rationalise the brisk rates of wage growth. “RBA may be told to hold press conferences; Barrenjoey talk queried would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. “@bluntman_eth @Tombeecon @cjoye So they just entered the real estate market. 65% in November. See new Tweetschristopher joye on Twitter: "RT @eurekareport: On Talking Finance this week with @AlanKohler: central banks face a longer, harder task to get inflation down; dodging an Australian recession; an inflationary budget & opposition in the opposition ft. Job cuts over 18mo. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. new Tweets. “The “family finances vs a year ago” sub-index dropped 8% in February, to 62. “@cjoye Watched The Big Short again last night - I fear the can kicking is going to end soon and we will have our very own subprime moment. Show more". Sign upWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. This chart from Bloomberg provides a good summary of consensus estimates. Sign up“@JohnQuiggin @cjoye We're here because Reagan & Thatcher's neoliberal agenda of crushing unions by offshoring manufacturing to China (& continued by Clinton & Blair) . . RT @CommSec: In our latest Executive Series interview we sat down with @cjoye from Coolabah Capital to chat about wide range of issues including recent collapse of. Sydney is off 10. @cjoye Sydney house prices have fallen 11. then the printing starts again leading to further dilution of currency . 8 per cent, it would mean that purchasing power has been eroded by a total of 33 per cent since the RBA kicked off this cycle in May last year. A $14m unsecured loan will cover the client loss, creating a $32m debt for Huobi Like I said before: there will be unpredictable fall out from FTX in the following weeks. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 1KWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. ”“@Fuffalufaguz @cjoye I bought at top 23 year old fixed rate 14 percent price tanked was in negative equity for 10 years house needed totally renovated sold for same price after all interest bills and pound bought nearly half what it would everyone is conned by media having to have what everyone has”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager at Coolabah Capital. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. In this conversation. Sign upchristopher joye @cjoye. 7%. . LNP for all its 'hawkishness' over China refused to develop onshore manufacturing for fear of unions. ”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. ALT. In this conversation. The Australian Financial. “The RBA is hierarchical, insular, supercilious, hubristic, resistant to outside influence, and exceptionally slow to recognise and respond to its own mistakes. Retweets. Sydney (+1. Interesting to see Treasurer Jim Chalmers trying to directly jawbone the RBA into not hiking by arguing that the inflation result does not meet. “First housing bear in my cross-hairs: UBS concedes yesterday, "Looking fwd, we had expected home prices could drop 10%, but it could be smaller now. I believe this includes offset accounts. Massive portion of the population realising they are not going to achieve an acceptable basic standard of living. Sign upWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. com. 0 replies 0 retweets 8 likes. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. au. 85% to 4. *Potential for another RBA hiking cycle >4%. Even with yields down. Drone pilot Christopher Joye, who captured the footage, said: "Swimmers would not believe there was a. Aug 16. IR here are… Show more . Maybe u can get annoyed that the advertisers allowed this ad? But Matt Damon isn't a financial expert, how is he gonna predict what happens in mkts in 2022, lol. Found. 6%mom) prices led the increase. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. It’s funny because traders on the street know that on Friday mornings, I will be buried in one. It. ”Log in. ”“Yep. “GS: Australian capital-city dwelling prices rose +0. Australian money is rushing out of the crypto exchange, and customers are willing to accept a big haircut to cash out their holdings. In this conversation. Sign upWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. In this conversation. ”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. @cjoye, @masters_joanne, @ImpactEconAU & @markgkenny. S&P Reports Australian Home Loan Arrears Rose In December: S&P's Performance Index (SPIN) for Australian prime mortgages increased in December to 0. #ausecon @felicity_emmett @AdelaideTimbrel. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. This will. We now expect Australia's #housing prices to fall nearly 20%, before a modest recovery in 2024 as mortgage rates fall. Our predicted housing recovery continues @FinancialReview (Prelim. 8%mom in March, the first monthly increase since April 2022 and the largest monthly increase since January 2022. . Fun interview with nabtrade on bond markets. 2%. Your chart is pretty much 12 months already. Log in. By Huobi announced $18. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersIn this conversation. 6%mom) prices led the increase. 3. 8:58 PM · Oct 5, 2022 · Twitter Web App. 10% in more pain for borrowers and home owners. Binance Australia selling bitcoin $6k cheaper than other exchanges. Jerome Nugent-Smith. 04 May 2023 06:47:40Log in. Log in What does the Credit Suisse bail-in of its hybrids mean for Aussie bank hybrids? @cjoye Back in 2017 I wrote about a small number of Tier 2 and AT1 structures from Genworth + ME Bank that did not convert to equity (ie, went straight to write-off) and which could invert the capital structure hierarchy - predicting a situation where shareholders would push for AT1 or T2 write-offs to minimise their losses, just as happened. …”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Sign upNSW Treasurer Daniel Mookhey today reveals that Perrottet/Kean had planned to burden NSW taxpayers with another $25bn of debt to allow their investment arm, TCorp, to punt this money on stocks. ly/3tKymvn 8:25 PM · Nov 21, 2022 · Twitter Web App@cjoye Aussie house price update to 25 July: Sydney prices down 1. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 30% drop wipes out 40% of gains! Its so bad REINZ has taken down old reports!”“@ddtraderr @cjoye Ummmm Yes they can refinance however this is happening because interest rates are rising ⬆️⬆️⬆️ They may be able to refinance if they paid off enough, and if the properties have appreciated in value That’s a few “ifs” in there Overall, the situation is grim at beset”“3x crypto banks now dead: Silvergate; Silicon Valley; and Signature. 9% vs 56. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. com. 8%mom in March, the first monthly increase since April 2022 and the largest monthly increase since January 2022. ”While lots of people talk about the risk of war without actually understanding the odds, new research sheds light on the probability of major power conflict. CHRIS JUDD’S Masters of the Market Masters of the Market is back for 2021 and the first episode of the year is with CIO of Coolabah Capital and columnist for the AFR, Chris. Victoria's annual interest bill on its debt will rise towards $9 billion/yr by 2027 according to CBA analysis. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. NSW's interest bill will surge past $7 billion/yr according to Treasurer @dmookheyMLC. Sign upSee new Tweets. 7% in 11 days of Aug); Melb down 3. “@cjoye Sir. 3. christopher joye on Twitter: "Morning!" / Twitter. 1 – weakest reading since the depths of the early-1990s recession, Hassan said. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. . Sign upWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. christopher joye on Twitter: "Morning!" / Twitter. There were good reasons for very low rates (pre-covid) and those reasons haven’t gone away. Huobi announced $18. com. Aussie house prices fell in 2022 by their largest margin since records began in 1980. Immigration is still big in Aus. So presumably brought their first home. estimates will revise down a bit. “@cjoye Japan took over 10 years from peak to 'bottom' with a similar size bubble. ConversationIn this conversation. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users“@cjoye @ALeighMP @Charlton_AB @DanielMulinoMP @AlboMP @JEChalmers Genuine question/thought. Sign up Day of valuations reckoning looms for commercial real estate owners, valuers and auditors. 1. 2 days ago. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. macrobusiness. 4%mom) and Melbourne (+0. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersLog in. “I did a podcast interview with Koda's David Clark on the coming commercial real estate crash, why a second phase of the housing correction will emerge, the looming. There were good re“@Sporticus13 @cjoye @TheKouk I was wondering the other day how much of Wayne Swan’s unfulfilled budget surplus was the result of Koukie’s crystal ball. Crypto is toxic”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Australia needs to produce more with fewer people. . Last Friday was a normal day for us: we did about $450m of trades, and I actively directed ~$300m of them. “Aussie house price losses exceed 10%, Sydney losses breach 14%: 43 year record in sight “USDC 'Stablecoin' Breaks Peg As Circle Admits Billions Stuck With SVB Sign up. Interesting to see Treasurer Jim Chalmers trying to directly jawbone the RBA into not hiking by arguing that the inflation result does not meet the "material" upside surprise test Bullock set - despite every economist and the market saying it does. . It'll work right up until the point it is discovered that debt outstrips M2 money by a factor of 10:1 . Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersSign up. Lower bound of our 15-25pc forecast correction could be an optimistic outcome…”Log in. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 2m are customer assets. It’s like the economy has cancer and our doctors wants to stop treatment caus. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users Aussie house prices are continuing to fall at a very rapid pace in December based on early data from We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 18 Jul 2023 02:09:39. Ave wage vs ave savings vs ave mortgage debt does not compute in my mind-who can afford a $600k mortgage at 7% without it destroying monthly income?”“@cjoye See through the noise with China - they are in population decline as Poor Japan v2. 6% for one year but if taken from the peak in Sept 21 its -30% plus. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 3%. . Sign upLog in. @cjoye. Sitting on $6. "We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. In this conversation. Interesting. And inflation isn't coming down anytime soon with rents increasing Rate cuts in 2023 will simply shoot inflation back up. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. “No strong view on NSW election other than that NSW Labor Treasurer Daniel Mookhey is the smartest and hardest working politician I have ever dealt with in my life @dmookheyMLC @ALeighMP” Well you called it when you said we could likely have another series of rate hikes after the pause @cjoye. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Australia needs to produce more with fewer people. “Morning!”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Key takeaways * 15-20% peak to trough in Australian housing prices remains the view. ConversationA not so tiny drop in some parts of the country. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. @cjoye. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. “I did a podcast interview with Koda's David Clark on the coming commercial real estate crash, why a second phase of the housing correction will emerge, the looming. Wonderfully cherry picked data in desperation to keep credibility of the narrative that allows them to be defenders of last resort of the great Australian credit fuelled housing bubble. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users“Worst house price declines in 42 years, with more to come. “ANZ's David Plank and Jack Chambers have today updated their RBA QE3 forecast to a potential program that could be as large as $189 billion, bringing them in line with Westpac's Bill Evans who is projecting a $150bn program for QE3 @Johnkehoe23 @ANZ_Newsroom @WestpacMacro”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. There was only one way to go. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersIn this conversation. ”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 76% from 0. 30 Nov 2022 01:03:22@cjoye. would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Log in Another story this morning with fresh quotes from NSW Treasurer @dmookheyMLC on paying back the Liberal Party's $100bn debt explosion: "When asked about the $40 billion in managed funds administered by the state’s debt arm, Treasury Corp, including a $1. . You are right to hesitate on price directions for houses - low listings are contributing to price stability, but so are rents increasing by 25% ($120 pw on $500 pw) and many buyers paying cash (not first home buyers). christopher joye on Twitter. Wonderfully cherry picked data in desperation to keep credibility of the narrative that allows them to be. Log inWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. "@wmdglasgow Yes, @cjoye is one of our best journalists" (Tweet) – via Twitter. “@cjoye It seems a bit silly to me that an actor, doing an advert, with a script, on the television, should suddenly become a financial commentator on cryptocurrencies. Log inAnother story this morning with fresh quotes from NSW Treasurer @dmookheyMLC on paying back the Liberal Party's $100bn debt explosion: "When asked about the $40 billion in managed funds administered by the state’s debt arm, Treasury Corp, including a $1. So how does this effect them? I would have thought ppl who regularly buy/sell homes or were looking to cash out for retirement would be more affected?”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Tech party is over as Canva and Atlassian get tough, and perks dry up“Does any seriously believe house prices will not fall after the RBA cutting the cash rate from 1. 2%. . We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. When the cryptobros realise the startup founders need to cash in their crypto investments because SVB is experiencing a bank run. Replying to. . 11. 1. Grrrr”“@cjoye Thoughts on bank and esp. “@cjoye Mate, what's the go with this fund you run? You are doing a terrible job managing other people's money! By the way, #bitcoin was trading around $8. 85% to 4. “Morning!” We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 6%; 5 city index prices down 1. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. christopher joye on Twitter. It's very unstable at the street level. I still haven’t seen you clearly outline why rates will stay high over the medium to long term, when nothing has fundamentally permanently changed since 2019. See new Tweets. We reap what we sow. Interesting. It would not suprise me if the government introduces 'targeted support' which ends up pumping the market for a…”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. In levels terms, capital-city dwelling prices…” Higher long-term risk-free cash rates are going to create a protracted pain trade for risky assets. @cjoye. “The great regime change: growth and cheap money are dead of risky assets ‘living in a parallel universe’ - A recession may be precisely the jolt lackadaisical Millennials require to lift their game. I doubt the rise over the previous Q was sustainable, given the reduction in borrowing power. ly/3pmX9Dk. 5% pa, or 2. 2m are customer assets. 1:56 AM · Jul 29, 2022 · Twitter Web App. Well done. New RBA analysis shows that between 15% and 17% of all Aussie borrowers are likely to experience negative cash-flows as a result of rate hikes in the RBA's base-line and adverse scenarios“@KellyAlspals @cjoye ALD share price hasn't moved much, so either no productivity or wage-rate spiral imo. Some areas down -25. We have unscrambled the letters cjoye (cejoy) to make a list of all the word combinations found in the popular word scramble. 2:58 AM · Jun 30, 2023. Conversation. 1%. christopher joye. Property is ‘sleepwalking’ towards its biggest test since the GFC. In this conversation. Redirecting to /user/cjoye/. . . Log in. "It's global cyber war out there". 5% plus 1% productivity. ”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 1. “@cjoye After yeeeaars of saving for a deposit and finally getting into the market [at peak Jan 22] we now have to deal with this. @cjoye. afr. “India is an important ally that can’t be trusted Replying to @cjoye Usecases for blockchain are only limited by the imagination. GS have published research on what Australia's inflation rate looks like using the new monthly data, crucially excluding items the ABS does not collect information on (and imputes to have no change). We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. afr. @cjoye After some cajoling, I’ve dusted off my double barrel shottie and have agreed to track, hunt and eliminate the biggest housing bull of them all: @TheKouk @cjoye And then the currency will fall, inflation will accelerate and rates will need to go even higher than they would’ve needed to in the first place. A controversial article by Christopher Joye, an outspoken investment portfolio manager and columnist for the Australian Financial Review, has. What’s the result?”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Likes. @Dante57112893. Funny thing is many keep saying it hasn't crashed yet. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users In this conversation. Like. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users The data always tells a story and sticky inflation makes it impossible to see an upside with House prices til Q1 maybe even Q2 2024 Bear market like the 1 we are in. 7%. Bank of M&D or other exogenous injections can only go so far. Fantastic lunch event with Chris Joye @cjoye and Coolibah Capital today in Perth. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. afr. Prepare for equities and property pain.